• by IPS Correspondents (kathmandu)
• Thursday, November 10, 1994
• Inter Press Service

KATHMANDU, Nov 10 (IPS) - BARELY A WEEK BEFORE BEFORE NEPAL'S PREMATURE MID-TERM POLLS, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT PRIME MINISTER GIRIJA PRASAD KOIRALA'S POLITICAL GAMBLE WITH FRESH ELECTIONS MAY PAY OFF.

PUSHED INTO A CORNER BY STIFF OPPOSITION FROM THE UNITED- MARXIST LENINISTS (UML) AND BITTER INFIGHTING WITHIN HIS OWN RULING CONGRESS PARTY, KOIRALA CONVINCED KING BIRENDRA TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT IN JULY, HOPING TO DEFUSE THE CRISIS AND EVEN INCREASE HIS MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT.

AN ASSESSMENT BY THE NEPALI CONGRESS THIS WEEK SHOWS THAT KOIRALA WISHES MAY COME TRUE. THE PARTY SAYS CHANCES OF VICTORY IN THE NOV. 15 POLLS ARE "ALMOST CERTAIN" IN 105 OUT OF THE 205 CONSTITUENCIES. A FURTHER 11 ARE CLASSIFIED AS "POSSIBLES".

"THE OUTCOME IN THESE 11 SEATS WILL DEPEND ON OUR ABILITY TO CONVINCE THE REBEL CONGRESS CANDIDATES TO STEP OUT OF THE RACE," SAYS A SENIOR CONGRESS PARTY SOURCE. "EVEN IF THEY DON'T WE SHOULD WIN THE NUMBER OF SEATS REQUIRED TO FORM A GOVERNMENT."

THE INFIGHTING IN THE RULING PARTY HAS LED TO 60 CONGRESS MEMBERS SETTING THEMSELVES UP AS 'INDEPENDENT' CANDIDATES AGAINST THE PARTY'S OFFICIAL NOMINEES.

THE MAIN BATTLE IN THE LACKLUSTRE CAMPAIGNING SO FAR HAS BEEN BETWEEN THE CONGRESS AND THE UML. THE ROYALIST NATIONAL DEMOCRACY PARTY (RPP) MAY EMERGE AS THE THIRD LARGEST FORCE.

THE UML IS CONTESTING 196 SEATS AND AN ASSESSMENT BY THE PARTY LEADERSHIP BASED ON REPORTS BY ITS 50,000-STRONG CADRES LAST WEEK CLAIMED IT WOULD WIN BETWEEN 119 AND 125 SEATS

SOME 1,446 CANDIDATES FROM 24 POLITICAL PARTIES AND 384 INDEPENDENTS ARE CONTESTING THE ELECTIONS. NEPAL HAS 12.1 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS OUT OF A TOTAL POPULATION OF 19 MILLION AND THE VOTER TURNOUT IN THE LAST ELECTIONS IN 1991 WAS 65 PERCENT.

DEMOCRACY AND ITS CONCOMITANT MULTI-PARTY POLITICS RETURNED TO NEPAL IN 1990 AFTER VIOLENT STREET PROTESTS FORCED KING BIRENDRA TO ABDICATE ABSOLUTE MONARCHY IN FAVOUR OF BECOMING A CONSTITUTIONAL KING, ENDING 30 YEARS OF AUTHORITARIAN RULE.

KOIRALA BECAME PRIME MINISTER AFTER THE CONGRESS WON THE 1991 ELECTIONS. BUT HIS PARTY HAS BEEN PLAGUED BY DISSENT AND MATTERS CAME TO A HEAD IN JULY WHEN 36 DISSIDENT PARTY MEMBERS REFUSED TO GO ALONG WITH HIS BUDGET PROGRAMME.

KOIRALA RESIGNED, THE KING DISSOLVED THE HOUSE, ANNOUNCED NEW POLLS AND REINSTATED KOIRALA AS CARETAKER PRIME MINISTER.

© Inter Press Service (2014) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service

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