Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, reported at least 63 casualties and 290 injuries in the past 24 hours, pushing the nationwide toll since the seasonal rains began on 26 June to over 120 fatalities, according to the National Disaster Management Authority.

The unfolding crisis – rising rivers, forecasts of further downpours, fragile rural homes collapsing and transport links severed – has revived stark memories of the catastrophic 2022 floods that submerged a third of the country and affected more than 33 million people.

More intense rainfall is forecast over parts of central and northern Pakistan in the next 72 hours. Weather forecasters have warned of “exceptional high” flood levels of up to 450,000 cusecs at some locations along the Jhelum River. One cusec equals one cubic foot of water – equivalent to 28.4 litres or 7.5 gallons – per second.

There are also fears of glacier lake outburst floods in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan regions.

Wider UN contingency – major stock gaps

Managed by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN presence in Pakistan released an inter‑agency monsoon contingency plan earlier this month.

The plan lays out response triggers, sector roles and arrangements for floods, storms and landslides – under the leadership of the Government.

However, pre-positioned aid supplies remain far below projected need, with key sectors such as protection, nutrition, and shelter and non-food items, facing severe gaps.

These shortfalls underscore the urgency of pre‑positioning relief items and securing rapid financing if the rains intensify.

Building resilience

Amid the emergency, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and the Government of Pakistan this week launched a climate-risk project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Buner and Shangla districts.

The initiative will establish early warning systems, train communities in safe evacuation and strengthen local capacity for disaster response.

“Recurring climate shocks are a driver of hunger and malnutrition, threatening lives, livelihoods and entire food systems,” said WFP Country Director Coco Ushiyama.

“This project represents a multi-layered investment in early warning systems and action.”

Flashbacks of 2022 devastation

The escalating disaster once again reveals Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate shocks.

In 2022, unprecedented monsoon floods killed more than 1,700 people, displaced millions and devastated water systems, leaving millions more in desperate need. The disaster also inflicted immense economic damage estimated at nearly $40 billion, and reversed years of development efforts.

Experts warn that erratic monsoon patterns, amplified by climate change, are hitting the country – and others across southern Asia – harder each year.