• by Zofeen Ebrahim (karachi)
• Wednesday, May 06, 2009
• Inter Press Service

Alarm bells are ringing in Washington, with the U.S. fretting over what could happen if the 'worst, the unthinkable' were to happen and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), toppled the country's year-old democratic government and got hold of its nuclear arsenal.

On Apr. 22, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the House Foreign Affairs Committee she was concerned by the peace deal signed by the provincial government agreeing to implement the shariah (Islamic law) in the Malakand division of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). This area comprises the districts of Swat, Dir and Chitral, bordering Afghanistan.

Clinton caused a diplomatic furore when she accused Pakistan of 'abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists'. She said that the fledgling Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP) government faced an 'existential threat' from the Islamic militants with the nuclear-armed nation posing a 'mortal threat' for the United States and other countries.

Clinton's comments echoed those made by a key advisor to General David Petraeus of the U.S. Central Command. David Kilcullen was quoted in the Washington Post in March saying Pakistan could collapse in less than six months. Asked why he thought Pakistan was the 'central front' in the war on terror, he replied that the country's collapse could mean an extremist takeover and al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons.

'Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control,' he said. 'The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems.'

But Pakistani defence analyst, Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, has dismissed these fears, saying the U.S. is contemplating a worst case scenario which is never going to happen. Speaking to IPS on the phone from Lahore, Rizvi emphasised that Pakistan's existence was in no imminent danger, but warned the country could well enter into a 'bloody phase' in the next six months.

Many in Pakistan saw the peace deal signed between the Tehrik-e-Taliban and the NWFP government on Feb. 16 as conceding Malakand to the TTP, Pakistan's main Taliban group, not to be confused with the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan. The president, Asif Ali Zardari, was reluctant to sign the bill allowing the implementation of shariah into law, only approving it on Apr. 13.

In the past two years, TTP militants have established effective control over the valley of Swat, 160 km from Islamabad, defying the over 20,000 Pakistan army troops deployed there as part of the U.S.-led war on terror in neighbouring Afghanistan.

The TTP has prevented girls from seeking education - including bombing over 200 schools, many of which catered to girls - restricting women’s employment and visibility in public spaces, and killing, even beheading those opposed to the Taliban's version of Islam.

IPS asked Teresita C. Schaffer, South Asia director at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, what has prompted the U.S. to decry an 'existential' threat now. 'There was no single event or statement that led to this concern in Washington,' explained Schaffer, who is a former U.S. ambassador to Sri Lanka. 'It was the growing evidence that in practice, the government deal in Swat was leading to that area being controlled by insurgents who had been killing government servants, police and local citizens,' she said responding to questions over e-mail.

In early April, the militants expanded their presence to the districts of Buner and Dir, adjacent to their stronghold in the adjacent Swat Valley, sparking clashes with residents. According to Amnesty International, around 33,000 people have left their homes in Lower Dir. Fierce army operations have led to militants retreating for now.

The growing strength and confidence of the militants emanates from the dithering on the part of the present government and inaction by the security forces in the Swat valley. People in urban centres like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad fear a backlash from the extremists and wonder how long it will be before the militants defy the government’s writ there.

'Taliban are a determined lot and believe that they face an authority that they can challenge and dislodge,' pointed out Rizvi. 'The militants don’t have to come to Islamabad to establish their authority,' said Rizvi. 'There are madrassas of the Wahabi/Salafi school with extremist elements everywhere to carry out the same!'

'The militants certainly want to take control of more territories, but they aren’t an invading army that is moving kilometre by kilometre,' agreed Schaffer. 'The danger is that the authority of the state will erode in so many places that it will become hard for it to continue functioning in the way Pakistanis have come to expect over the past 60 years.'

The government, said Rizvi, 'must make up its mind how to deal with the situation.' He said it was at the moment divided.

'It must as a first, rehabilitate their authority by asserting their primacy in Swat and the adjacent areas so that the perception of Taliban onslaught is checked. Unfortunately, this will lead to a bloody affair,' said Rizvi.

But journalist Amir says the army has not inspired confidence in its performance thus far. 'One does not know whether it is properly prepared to take on the militants or even carry out an operation against them and sustain it. There is a disconnect between the army and the present civilian government. The government, which should be calling the shots and showing the way to the armed forces is not doing that.

'The question is,' said Amir, 'will the army get a strong political direction to take the militants head-on and will the army be willing to fight?'

'There are divisions within the army,' says Rizvi. 'Some officers may refuse to take up arms against the militants. On the one hand, there are militants whom they consider Pakistanis and Muslims, and on the other there is pressure from the U.S. and an increased anti-U.S. sentiment. There is confusion in their minds and they are not totally convinced the militants are their enemies. The only way out is quick action.'

Former director general of the Intelligence Bureau, Masood Sharif Khan Khattak, on the contrary, feels the army has 'performed very well in very challenging times' and says the response from Islamabad must go beyond a military one.

'Development can be a concurrent activity to efforts aimed at restoring law and order because, in order to restore law and order the stakes of the local population have to be brought about through job-generating developmental activity,' he said.

'One giant and well-coordinated step in the direction of restoring the government's writ, beginning of development activity, building of schools and hospitals and so much more and all at one time,' said Khattak.

But like many others in Pakistan, he has little confidence in the present rulers. 'The functionaries act on a day to day basis and from incident to incident,' rued Khattak. 'The internal security of Pakistan is in the hands of novices at the Interior Ministry.' 'Pakistan needs a more competent dispensation in Islamabad to handle this warlike situation,' said Amir. Unfortunately, he said, 'there seems to be no hand on the tiller.'

If Pakistani analysts are to be believed, Washington is hyperventilating somewhat, but its fears are not totally misplaced.

'If the Taliban threat intensifies, the military will try to assert its primacy which will result in killings on both sides,' concludes Rizvi. 'If this does not work then either the state will be overwhelmed by the Taliban or the writ of Pakistani government will be limited to the capital or some cities, and rest of Pakistan will be ruled or dominated by different militant groups.

'In other words, the Pakistani state will be unable to function as an effective political entity.'

© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service

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