NEPAL: RULING PARTY IS FRONT-RUNNER IN MIDTERM POLLS

• by IPS Correspondents (kathmandu)
• Monday, November 14, 1994
• Inter Press Service

KATHMANDU, Nov 14 (IPS) - NEPAL'S RULING CONGRESS PARTY REMAINS A FRONT-RUNNER IN MIDTERM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY, BUT THE FACTION-RIDDEN ORGANISATION MAY FIND IT HARD TO GAIN AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY.

THE MAIN OPPOSITION COMMUNIST PARTY OF NEPAL UNITED MARXIST- LENINIST (UML) IS CONTESTING 196 OF THE 205 PARLIAMENTARY SEATS, AND IS EXPLOITING THE DISUNITY WITHIN THE CONGRESS TO POSE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE.

BUT HISTORIAN AND EX-DIPLOMAT DEVENDRA RAJ UPADHAYA SAYS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONGRESS, EVEN IN TRUNCATED FORM, MAY FORM THE NEW GOVERNMENT WITH THE AID OF REBEL CONGRESS CANDIDATES.

"I SEE THE CONGRESS WINNING BETWEEN 80 TO 95 SEATS, BUT IT MAY FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT," HE SAYS, ADDING, "ABOUT 15 INDEPENDENTS -- CONTESTING AGAINST THE PARTY'S OFFICIAL CANDIDATES -- MAY ALSO WIN AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF THEM JOINING THE PARENT PARTY."

A LITTLE OVER 12 MILLION NEPALIS WILL CHOOSE AMONG 1,442 CANDIDATES FROM 24 POLITICAL PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS TO FORM THE SECOND PARLIAMENT AFTER THE RESTORATION OF DEMOCRACY IN 1990.

REBELLION WITHIN THE CONGRESS RANKS IN JULY PRECIPITATED THE POLITICAL CRISIS THAT LED TO MID-TERM POLLS.

AT LEAST 30 OF THESE REBELS ARE CONTESTING ON CONGRESS PARTY TICKETS WHILE ANOTHER 20 'INDEPENDENTS' -- DISSATISFIED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF PARTY TICKETS -- ARE CONTESTING AGAINST THE OFFICIAL CANDIDATES.

PRIME MINISTER GIRIJA PRASAD KOIRALA FACES OPPOSITION FROM THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN THE TWO CONSTITUENCIES FROM WHERE HE IS CONTESTING. BUT ANALYSTS SAY HE IS LIKELY TO WIN BOTH.

IRONICALLY KOIRALA'S MAJOR ELECTION PLANK IS "STABILITY AND PEACEFUL POLITICS", A PROMISE WHICH MAY BE HONOURED MORE IN THE BREACH IF ANY OF THE SIZEABLE NUMBER OF THE GROUP OF 36 DISSIDENTS GET RE-ELECTED.

"THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE INFIGHTING AND MORE POLITICAL INSTABILITY," SAYS A TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENTIST.

"GIVEN THE CONFUSIONS THAT REMAIN IN THE NEPALI CONGRESS POLITICS, WE MAY BUT HOPE THAT THE POLITICIANS WILL RETURN MORE EDUCATED AND NOT PUSH US INTO ANOTHER ELECTION WITHIN A FEW YEARS," HE ADDS.

THE UML THAT HAD WON 68 SEATS IN THE FORMER HOUSE, HAS BEEN PLAYING UP THE "FAILURES" OF THE NEPALI CONGRESS.

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