AMERICAS: A Weakened Clinton Faces Upcoming Summit
WASHINGTON, Nov 22 (IPS) - U.S. President Bill Clinton is not in a strong position as the upcoming Summit of the Americas approaches, and analysts predict that few gains will come out of the presidential meeting.
On Dec. 9-11, Clinton will meet with 33 other hemispheric heads of state after facing a tough fight to get the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) approved and following a resounding Democratic defeat in the Nov. 8 elections.
"At least in the area of trade there will not be much Clinton can do, and that is what (the Presidents) want to discuss in the summit," said Eric Olson, with the Washington Office for Latin America.
The Council on Hemispheric Affairs' Larry Birns said Clinton will only be able to talk about free trade as a distant promise rather than as an immediate possibility, and Olson said that while the trade question could be discussed, the U.S. delegation will be unable to draw up any sort of meaningful timeframe.
While the White House is confident that Congress will approve GATT, legislative leaders from both parties predict a tough haul which in all likelihood will not be successful before the summit.
The hardest blow Congress has dealt the future of GATT came on Sunday, when Republican Senate leader Robert Dole virtually conditioned his support for the accord on the elimination of the capital gains tax.
Clinton and his allies in Congress oppose the lifting of the tax - and Dole's deal - arguing that the move would only benefit the country's wealthiest sectors.
Organisation of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria has called the approval of the GATT "indispensable" for the summit, as a sign of the Clinton administration's commitment to free trade.
The former Colombian President said that otherwise a negative signal would be sent by the U.S. Congress at a crucial moment when Latin American governments are seeking to lay the foundations for hemispheric economic integration.
Birns also said the U.S. Congress seems to be tending towards an even more thorough - and slower - evaluation of the countries which hope to sign free trade accords with the United States than they did with Mexico when it joined the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
This, added to the obstacles Clinton faces in pushing his free trade agenda through, would seem to augur a disappointing summit for Latin American participants.
Olson added that among Latin American countries no consensus exists regarding the best way to move towards integration of trade.
He pointed out that some countries see a gradual, nation-by- nation incorporation into NAFTA, while others - such as Brazil - prefer to focus on strengthening existing sub-regional alliances.
Meanwhile, Birns said that "when Clinton talks about Latin America he mentions only free trade and privatisation, but neither makes any sense unless they go hand in hand with the creation of jobs, the absence of which is one of the causes of Latin American emigration to the United States."
In his opinion, the U.S. government should carry out a more in- depth evaluation of Latin America's situation in order to include more than the "distant promise" of free trade on the agenda.
He also predicted that the issue of immigration/emigration will come up due to Latin American concern about a growing anti- immigrant feeling in the United States.
That hostility was reflected in the recent approval of Bill 187 in California, which sought to cut off access of undocumented workers to social services but was declared unconstitutional.
© Inter Press Service (2014) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service