ASIA: Shook Up Over Sino-Vietnamese Spratlys Handshake (1) An Inter Press Service Analysis

HONG KONG, Nov 26 (IPS) - An agreement between China and Vietnam to set territorial disputes aside and concentrate on economic ties has sent diplomats and analysts in Asia scrambling to figure out exactly what the handshaking is all about.

But they have been coming up with little more than a growing certainty that thorny issue of the disputed Spratly Islands is not about to disappear, and that tensions can still resurface anytime.

This despite a joint communique signed at the end of Chinese President Jiang Zemin's historic visit to Vietnam Tuesday that said China and Vietnam would refrain from "all acts that make things more complicated or broaden conflicts".

Vietnamese Foreign Minister Nguyen Manh Cam had also said, "I'm not a fortune teller to predict the time-frame but given the cordial atmosphere and conducive environment now, I believe (the Spratlys issue) can be resolved earlier than expected."

But diplomats analysing the meeting in Hanoi say the two sides have not gone as far as resurrecting the idea of joint development by China and Vietnam.

What they do seem to have agreed is that they will ignore all the other claimants to the Spratlys. Significantly, three of these are members of the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Spratlys, a chain of over 100 tiny uninhabited islands in the South China sea, is believed to be rich in oil and natural gas. Sovereignty is claimed not only by China and Vietnam but also by Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei.

All except Brunei maintain troops there, but China and Vietnam have formidable garrisons.

In the past, China appeared to hold all the cards in the dispute, although it focused much of its energies toward easing Taiwan out of the area.

Recently, Le Minh Nghia, chairman of Vietnam's Frontier Committee even said, "The only country that doesn't want to solve this peacefully is China because they are the strongest."

But the growing importance of oil revenues to Vietnam, and its impending membership to ASEAN is shifting the balance.

Oil extracted from one field Bach Ho as part of a joint venture with a Russian company already accounts for a third of the Vietnam's export revenue.

© Inter Press Service (2014) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service