• by Ranjit Devraj (new delhi)
• Friday, May 15, 2009
• Inter Press Service

As exit polls predict a hung verdict to India's month-long general elections, results for which are expected late Saturday, the only certainty is that a handful of top female politicians firmly hold the keys to the formation of the next government.

In the driver's seat is Sonia Gandhi, leader of the Congress party which is favoured to emerge as the single largest party and retain power for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) which has been in power since the last general elections in 2004.

Pitted against the UPA are the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition led by the pro-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the 'Third Front', a loose conglomeration of regional parties and communists opposed to both the Congress party and the BJP.

Sonia's main task is to forge an alliance of parties, including those from the Third Front, and tote up the 'magic number' of 273 seats in order to gain a simple majority in the 545-member Lok Sabha or lawmaking lower house of Parliament.

Curiously, the leaders Sonia may have to do business with are three formidable women politicians - Jayalalithaa Jayaraman, former chief minister of southern Tamil Nadu, Mayawati (one name), currently chief minister of northern Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, and Mamata Bannerjee, favoured to become the next chief minister of West Bengal.

Going by rough exit poll estimates Jayalalithaa's AIADMK party, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress could end up controlling more than 60 seats among themselves at a time when every single seat is crucial.

According to Vir Sanghvi, commentator on public affairs, in order to form a government, the Congress party will need the support of at least two of these women. In a testimony to their political savvy Sanghvi writes in his blog: ''But in every case, reasonable negotiations are impossible because all three women play the lunatic card.''

A major dilemma for Sonia arises from the fact that the Congress party has, had or hopes to have close links with the political opponents of all three women in their home bases.

Thus Jayalalithaa's arch-rival is the present chief minister and leader of the DMK party, M. Karunanidhi while Mayawati's chief rival in Uttar Pradesh is Mulayam Singh Yadav, former chief minister and leader of the Samajwadi Party.

In West Bengal, the ruling Left Front's unbroken three decades in power is under serious challenge by Bannerjee who already has a pre-poll understanding with the Congress party. On the other hand the Congress party may not be able to do without the support of the Left Front in forming the national government.

Under India's constitution in the event of an unclear verdict it is left to the president, normally a figurehead, to decide which party or coalition gets a first crack at trying to form government. In this case the president, Pratibha Patil, also happens to be a woman.

It is Patil's prerogative to invite the leader of the biggest single party, or the leader of the biggest pre-poll alliance. She may even decide to give first chance to any formation that hands over to her the largest number of letters of allegiance.

Commenting on the situation to IPS, Ranjana Kumari, president of Women Power Connect , an umbrella for some 700 women's organisations and individuals, told IPS that it was ''encouraging to see females calling the shots even if women and their issues continue to be poorly represented'' . Kumari said she was cautious about reading too much into the ''women on top'' situation and said she was inclined to attribute it to India's many contradictions, starting with abject poverty amidst immense wealth and technological savvy in underdeveloped settings.

Yet Kumari saw hope in the emergence of Jayalalithaa on the national stage. ''Her track record during her two stints as chief minister of Tamil Nadu was commendable where the empowerment of women in that state was concerned - be it special programmes for the girl child, legislation to stop domestic violence or creating all-woman commando units.''

For Sonia the difficulty is not only the complex interplay of central and provincial level politics but also the fact that Jayalalithaa and Mayawati have an eye on the prime ministership.

Even before the elections Jayalalithaa, a former film actress, appeared to be grooming herself up to play a major role in national politics with her AIADMK subtly projecting her in its manifesto as 'a person with extraordinary vision and experience and one of the most towering personalities in the Indian political landscape''.

''Tough times call for tough decisions. And tough decisions can be taken only by mentally tough people. What India needs today is a stable government headed by a strong prime minister...,'' the manifesto said suggesting that Jayalalithaa was in it for the top job rather than just providing a supporting role.

An even more formidable challenger is Mayawati, who has perfected the art of riding on shaky coalitions to advance her own political career while promoting the main stated agenda of the BSP - to represent the interests of the Dalits (translates as the broken people) who are at the lowest rung of India's caste ladder. Mayawati began her current term as chief minister - the fourth after brief earlier stints in 1995, 1997 and 2002 - by forging an unlikely alliance between the Dalits and the Brahmins, members of the highest Hindu caste.

While Mayawati has declared herself to be firmly in the Third Front camp her past reputation for switching allegiances means that the Congress party and Sonia cannot afford to ignore her or her solidly loyal vote bank of Dalits.

Powerful women politicians are going to be calling the shots in the jockeying that will almost inevitably follow Saturday's vote counting in India.

© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service

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