Global Issues
Bike vs Car on a Hot Planet
As global carbon emissions hit record-high levels last year, officials from leading Asian nations told the 2011 International Transport Forum in nearby Leipzig that their citizens want more cars.
At the same meeting, some Europeans urged a 21st century renaissance in bicycle transport, with electric and electric-assist bikes for personal health and the health of the climate. 'We in India need to provide more roads and rail,' said B.K. Chaturvedi, a member of India's Planning Commission.
'Cycling is a miniscule thing. That's not the future,' Chaturvedi told the nearly 800 attendees. 'The bike is better to get around in Beijing, but bicycle use is dropping fast due to poor air quality and the danger from car traffic,' said Pan Haixiao, a professor at Tongji University in China.
The number of cars and light trucks globally is projected to triple from the current 850 million to 2.5 billion by 2050, according to the International Transport Forum's (ITF) Transport Outlook 2011. That growth is projected to be almost entirely in the developing world.
Richer countries are actually reducing the personal vehicle use in the last few years. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's ITF is an intergovernmental organisation for the transport sector involving 52 different nations.
Transport is the second leading source of carbon dioxide emissions, contributing about 7.5 gigatonnes to the 30.6 gigatonnes (Gt) emitted in total in 2010. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported last week that humanity cannot exceed annual emissions of 32.0 Gt or it will be impossible to achieve the internationally-agreed target of below two degrees C of global warming to avoid very dangerous levels of global warming.
IEA acknowledges that 32.0 Gt could be reached by the end of this year. Even with significant improvements in fuel efficiency and wider use of electric vehicles, the ITF report projects that carbon emissions from the transport sector will likely grow 250 percent by 2050. That would amount to roughly 19 Gt annually from transport alone.
Scientists warn that to have a 50-50 chance of staying below two degrees C, carbon emission growth must flatline by 2015 at the latest and start to decline by three percent per year. Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a long time - emissions from the 19th century are still contributing their small share to current and future warming.
Scientists also caution that there are feedbacks in the climate system, such as the potential for large releases of carbon from melting permafrost, that have not been included in their estimations.
Bicycles, and particularly electric-assist bikes, offer an important, practical solution for mobility and significant carbon emissions reductions, Manfred Neun, president of European Cyclists' Federation, told the conference.
© Inter Press Service (2011) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service