Africa’s Minerals Boon, Cautious Optimism Amid Geopolitical Disruptions
BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, March 18 (IPS) - Africa’s eye on minerals as the be-all-and-cure-all for the continent’s development agenda is being tested by geopolitical gamesmanship as global superpowers jostle to carve new spheres of influence.
Amid the turmoil unleashed by the United States President Donald Trump administration’s trade tariffs, African minerals have faced price volatility, which analysts say points to the fragility of reliance on the mining sector as the driver of the continent’s economic growth ambitions.
Scores of countries across Africa have their Gross Domestic Product anchored by the mining sector, which brings in much-needed forex earnings, yet the current moment of global mineral markets points to what is seen as “uncertainty” on how this can be sustained in the long term.
Since January this year, the price of gold has experienced bouts of fluctuation as a direct result of US trade policy, which has seen President Trump tussling with courts on the legality of some of his tariff pushes.
After the US Supreme Court struck down some of the Trump administration’s tariffs in Febaury, gold prices spiked overnight as investors sought to hedge their assets.
Gold prices went up again after Trump’s State of the Union address on 24 February, further exposing what analysts say will be a difficult position for African countries seeking to plan ahead regarding their mining policies.
Last year alone, the gold price grew by 60 percent, though they had been slipping in previous months, further highlighting the precarious nature of the markets that mineral-rich African countries have to contend with.
African countries are now scrambling to protect their mineral wealth amid a fresh rally of gold price increases since the beginning of the year, with Zimbabwe for example, announcing on February 24 an immediate suspension of the export of raw materials, seeking instead to engage in beneficiation and value addition whereby processing is done locally.
Among some of the approaches that experts say will cushion African countries against the loss of mining revenue is what has been identified as “revenue-sharing mechanisms that provide governments with increased participation in mining revenues while offering investors operational certainty and reduced regulatory risks.”
This sentiment emerged at the Alternative Mining Indaba held in Cape Town, South Africa in January where activists, investors and policymakers engaged on, among other things, how best to derive maximum benefit from the continent’s vast mineral resources.
“African governments need to shift from ad hoc, opaque deal-making to rules-based, transparent and competitive mineral governance anchored on national industrial strategies,” said Marvellous Ngundu, an African Futures and Innovation consultant at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.
“The goal is not to chase investors away but to strengthen bargaining power, standardise fiscal terms, plug revenue leakages and embed realistic value-addition and skills transfer requirements,” Ngundu told IPS.
But as volatility reigns with the battle for the imposition of what are increasingly considered punitive international trade tariffs by the US government, analysts say African countries will be hard-pressed to rethink their place in the dynamics of global trade as jittery investors and buyers await a cue from the Trump administration on how to protect their portfolios.
In its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report released in January, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa raises concerns about “volatile commodity prices” that “continue to weigh on Africa’s prospects for inclusive and sustainable growth.”
UNECA analysis found that while African countries showed “unexpected resilience to sharp increases in U.S. tariffs, underlying weaknesses persist.”
And the situation felt no worse than in the mining sector.
These concerns come amid a mix of cautious optimism from experts and upbeat projections by national governments across the continent regarding how mineral wealth will translate to long-term socio-economic development goals and uplift millions from historical poverty.
“Mineral resources are volatile and cyclical. The way forward is a pragmatic mix of stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and disciplined use of mineral windfalls,” Ngundu said, highlighting the urgency of new approaches to Africa’s mineral resource nationalism in a chaotic global market.
During the launch of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 (WESP 2026) in January, Stephen Karingi, a divisional head at the Economic Commission for Africa, said that despite a positive economic outlook marked by trade uncertainty, “volatile commodity prices continue to weigh on Africa’s prospects for inclusive and sustainable growth.”
While the report noted that “African trade expanded in 2025, supported by strong exports of precious metals,” experts remain cautious about the long-term effects of global trade disruptions on the continent’s economic development.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has also raised concerns about global trade disparity and its effects on Africa.
“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape, generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities,” Guterres said in remarks accompanying the WESP 2026 report.
“Many developing economies continue to struggle and, as a result, progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals remains distant for much of the world,” he added, further highlighting the volatility of commodity prices and Africa’s place in the global development agenda despite its vast mineral wealth.
IPS UN Bureau Report
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