In Europe, provisional estimates of excess mortality across Europe exceeded 30,000 people over the summer, with approximately 16,000 excess deaths estimated during the 22–28 June heatwave alone.

A few months later, a Himalayan glacier collapsed causing a catastrophic downstream flash flood in late August, which killed more than 1,300 people in Nepal.

The streak of exceptional global temperatures, with melting ice and rising sea levels, will continue in the ongoing year and a very strong El Niño event is set to unleash more extreme weather well into 2027, a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday – ahead of crucial COP31 talks in Türkiye.

The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 details that the past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, with the past four years topping the list.

Global average surface temperature for the period of January to September 2026 was approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average and is expected to rise till the end of the year due to El Niño’s warming effect, which has been proliferating since August.

It is expected to be the strongest on record, by December.

Warming waters

Around 90 per cent of the excess heat, trapped by greenhouse gases, is absorbed by the ocean, and 2026 is on track to be the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth.

“El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Meanwhile, sea levels are the highest on record, and sea-surface temperatures set monthly records during 2026.

Glaciers continue their long-term retreat: the ice lost in 2025 would have filled five Olympic swimming pools every second of the year.

‘Climate extremes’

“We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst.”

He urged leaders to “get serious” about reducing emissions faster, accelerating a transition from fossil fuel and delivering funds and protection that “vulnerable countries need”.

Risk multiplier

Dr. Saulo highlighted that the El Niño will be a risk multiplier, as heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms intensify faster than historical baselines prepared us for.

“Hundreds of millions of people this year have been exposed to unbearable extreme heat, whilst the catastrophic ice and rock collapse and flash floods in Nepal highlighted the compound risks facing communities in fragile, warming high-mountain terrain,” she said.

The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is set to be issued in March 2027.

Report highlights

• Greenhouse gases: Levels hit a new record in 2025 and continued to rise in 2026. Carbon dioxide is up 53 per cent since 1750, methane 167 per cent and nitrous oxide 26 per cent
• Oceans: Ocean heat hit a record high in 2025 and has kept rising in 2026. This warming is projected to continue for hundreds to thousands of years
• Sea level: Global average sea level reached a record high in 2026 – and it’s accelerating
• Sea ice: Antarctic sea ice had its third-lowest winter peak on record, and the Arctic had its lowest or second lowest
• Glaciers: Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, about 1 mm of sea-level rise.
• Freshwater: Water stored on land has declined globally since 2014. In 2025, 42 per cent of the assessed area had below-normal levels
• Health: For the first time, the World Health Organization (WHO) has classified the expected health impacts of El Niño as a health emergency
• Food: El Niño is already raising risks for agriculture, especially where food insecurity is high and farming depends on rainfall