• by Humberto Márquez (caracas)
• Friday, January 09, 2009
• Inter Press Service

Venezuela is heading for another electoral battle, after President Hugo Chávez kicked off 2009 by putting forward a new proposal to reform the constitution so that all elected officials may be indefinitely reelected.

In December, Chávez proposed a draft amendment to the 1999 constitution that he promoted, but the aim then was to allow only the Venezuelan president to stand for indefinite reelection.

After the Christmas and New Year break, the president and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) changed tack and proposed that at least five articles be amended, so that 'the right to run for office without restrictions is extended to governors, mayors, and (national and regional) legislators,' Chávez said.

'I think this strengthens the (amendment proposal). It is an extension of the right of the people to elect without restrictions and to nominate whomever they want. It's the theory of good governance: if a governor is doing a good job, the people have the right to reelect him as many times as they like,' Chávez said at a televised PSUV meeting.

After becoming president in 1999, Chávez renewed his mandate under the new constitution in 2000, and was reelected in 2006 for another six-year term, which expires in January 2013 according to present law.

But in late 2008 the president posed 'the need to continue at the helm at least until 2019. After that, God and the people will decide,' he said.

'There will be a battle between the government and the opposition to see which side appeals most strongly to the democratic values of the people,' analyst Oscar Schémel, the head of the Hinterlaces polling firm, told IPS.

Chávez asked parliament, where he has the support of 160 out of 167 lawmakers, to speed approval of the draft amendment so that it could be presented to the country in a referendum as soon as possible. He would like the referendum to be held on Feb. 15.

Retired General Alberto Muller, vice president of the PSUV, and José Albornoz, of the allied Patria Para Todos (Fatherland for All - PPT) party, said that unlimited reelection was a reward that would counterbalance the recall referendums that the constitution already allows as a curb on corrupt or incompetent holders of elected posts.

But opposition leaders claim otherwise.

'Chávez has read the polling results and knows that the numbers are against him, he knows that indefinite reelection to keep him in power will be rejected,' Ismael García, secretary general of the centre-left party Por la Democracia Social (For Social Democracy - PODEMOS), which broke away from the president in mid-2007, told IPS.

Julio Borges, of the centre-right opposition party Primero Justicia (Justice First), said 'the changes to the amendment proposal are a reflection of its low level of support and the president’s weak position. We emphatically reject indefinite reelection.'

The 1999 constitution stipulates that a president can only be reelected to one consecutive six-year term.

But in 2007, Chávez proposed a constitutional reform with amendments to 33 articles, including the possibility of unlimited presidential reelection, and more powers for the national government to move forward with its plans for '21st century socialism'. Parliament added proposed amendments to another 36 articles, and the draft text was put to a national referendum.

The constitutional reform package was turned down by 51 percent of voters, in Chávez’s first defeat at the ballot box in the 11 elections held since he was first voted in as president in December 1998.

The constitution states that a draft reform, once it has been rejected, cannot be presented again within the same period of government.

Dozens of academics and legal experts linked to the opposition have said the amendment Chávez proposed in December is unconstitutional in content, because it has already been rejected by voters, and in form, because it would change the principle of alternation in power, which is protected by the constitution.

The president and government officials, lawmakers and legal professionals in his camp argue, on the other hand, that constitutional reforms and amendments are different things. Chávez insisted that 'this is a specific modification of a single article, which is very different to a reform.'

Venezuelans have been called upon to vote 13 times in the last 10 years. The most recent elections, for governors and mayors, were held on Nov. 23, 2008, and in late 2009 voters will elect the members of the country's 330 town councils.

Why, then, are there plans for yet another referendum in February or March?

Chávez said it would 'clear the political pathway from now on, and we will know how things stand.' At every rally he holds, his supporters chant the slogan 'Oh, No! Chávez Won't Go!', as they have done for years.

But opposition voices, including editorials in the overwhelmingly opposition-aligned private media, economists, analysts and pollsters, are saying that the global economic crisis and subsequent plunge in oil prices will make 2009 a difficult year and force the government to adopt unpopular measures.

Saúl Ortega, a PSUV lawmaker and the vice president of parliament, dismissed this line of thought. 'This is about responding to what the people are clamouring for, and anyway, if the opposition can outvote us, what are they worried about? Let's measure our respective levels of support.'

The campaign has hardly begun but opinion polls, a tool increasingly used in electoral contests in Venezuela, are already part of the picture.

According to Grupo de Investigaciones Sociales (GIS 21), owned by former finance minister Nelson Merentes, 53 percent of respondents say they would vote for the amendment, and 42 percent against.

The Instituto de Datos found that 48 percent would vote 'yes' and 42 percent 'no', while the remainder did not know or did not answer.

But Consultores 21 reported 56.2 percent of interviewees were against the amendment, while 41.8 percent backed it.

Datanálisis, a firm on which business relies heavily, carried out a poll in mid-December, in which 52.8 percent were against the measure, 29.7 percent were for it and 9.2 percent were indifferent.

'In politics, nothing is written in stone, but the reelection issue has already been explored among the public and there are no significant changes. The president only has a short time left to persuade people to back him, so trying to enlist support from governors and mayors is a valid strategy,' said Luis León, the head of Datanálisis.

As for Hinterlaces, their poll found that 61 percent of respondents would vote 'no' on the amendment and 32 percent would vote 'yes', 'but this marked difference, based on the perception that Chávez wants to perpetuate himself in power, may shrink as the campaign progresses, as it is always up to the people to decide,' Schémel said.

'Anti-Chávez feeling is not very strong now, so the president has a clear window of opportunity to win. The opposition does not have a safe victory under its belt, as everything depends on their being able to show that the amendment means that those who are currently governing badly want to hold on to power,' he concluded.

© Inter Press Service (2009) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service