The warning comes in the latest Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), issued on Tuesday ahead of the COP30 climate conference which opens in Belém, Brazil, next week.

Nearly a decade has passed since world leaders adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and preferably to a 1.5°C threshold.

Climate action plans

Countries outline their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming through action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are submitted every five years.

The third round covers the period through 2035 – and only 60 parties, under a third, submitted new NDCs by the end of September.

The report reveals that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of NDCs, are now between 2.3 to 2.5°C, compared to 2.6 to 2.8°C in last year’s edition.

Those based on current policies are 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.

Missing the goal

UNEP noted, however, that methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, while the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, “meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle.”

As a result, nations remain far from meeting the goals of the landmark treaty. Therefore, reductions to annual emissions of 35 per cent and 55 per cent, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets.

The report finds that the multi-decadal average global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, which will be difficult to reverse.

“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

“But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist,” she added.

‘We know what needs to be done’

The report calls for faster and bigger reductions in emissions to keep returning to 1.5°C by the year 2100 within the realms of possibility.

“Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all nations – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest – and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts,” UNEP said.

The agency was adamant that the international community can accelerate climate action, if it chooses.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, temperature predictions have fallen from 3 to 3.5°C. Furthermore, technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available, such as wind and solar energy.

“From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done,” Ms. Anderson said.

“Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”