At the top end, in the period from last December to March 2026 around 1.25 million people will be in ‘emergency’ levels of acute food insecurity, characterised bylarge food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition - the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report revealed.

Immediate lifesaving assistance is needed to prevent a “catastrophe” for the over a million people in emergency levels of food insecurity.

Drivers of crisis

Residual 2025 monsoon flood impacts, drought, and localised insecurity have weakened agriculture and pastoral livelihoods, reduced production, disrupted markets, and squeezed coping capacity.

Seasonal factors have also added to the crisis with the lean season (December to February) reducing farm labour and income opportunities and in some areas harsh winter conditions have further constrained access and livelihoods.

In particular, food access has been constrained in some areas by weak purchasing power, market dependence, price volatility, and indebtedness. Wheat flour has also been flagged as especially concerning during the lean season.

Regional differences

Variations in conditions have created larger concentrations of hunger in certain regions.

In the IPC analysis, which covers 45 vulnerable regions in Pakistan and around 15 per cent of the total population, the Balochistan province had the highest proportional burden with 25 per cent of the analyzed population in at least high levels of food insecurity.

In the Sindh region over 3 million people are in high levels of food insecurity. While in the Musakhel, Zhob, Kachi, Tank and Torghar districts, 30 per cent of people are in at least high levels of food insecurity.

Potential for improvement

For the upcoming period from April to September, the report projects 6.7 million people to face high levels of food insecurity or more, a decrease of 855,000 from the current period.

Though some of the drivers are expected to persist – such as high staple prices, climatic risks, insecurity, and cross-border trade disruptions – seasonal factors such as winter crop harvesting and Eid-related livestock sales may temporarily ease pressure.

Though the numbers recorded decreased from last year, the report warns that comparison is misleading as the geographic coverage has dropped from 68 districts to 45. The report maintains that the prevalence of those in high levels of malnutrition remains similar.

Recommendations

To reduce food consumption gaps and protect lives, the report calls for scaling up access to sufficient and nutritious food through appropriate delivery modalities, including cash and voucher assistance alongside targeted in-kind food distributions.