• Analysis by Zofeen Ebrahim (karachi)
• Thursday, February 17, 2011
• Inter Press Service

The Muslim world is reeling from the fall of Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, but the effect is unlikely to ripple through Pakistan despite people’s disenchantment with their leaders, officials and academics say.

Already, people in Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, Syria and Bahrain seem to have picked up the signals sent by the secular revolt that rocked Egypt and lasted for 18 days. And the message is that people are no longer willing to tolerate long-sitting autocratic rulers.

Pakistanis have seen those signals too, and many have been debating whether the country might be the next Egypt, with media and political commentators speculating on it endlessly.

Kaiser Bengali, advisor to the Sindh Chief Minister, dismisses the idea with a smile.

'Every 20 minutes steam is let out by various political parties and issues (are) resolved,' Bengali said. This growing mumbling and muttering of disillusionment is only 'a process of transition' which, to Bengali, is the 'music of democracy.'

The current government, led by the Pakistan People’s Party, took office in February 2008 amid much jubilation, but many Pakistanis are already disenchanted and restless.

The situation, though, is not enough to stir a revolution, said political commentator Ayesha Siddiqa, who finds the possibility quite remote 'mainly because Pakistan sees more change on a regular basis than any of the Arab states.'

There are those, however, who refuse to rule out a revolution. Political analyst Raees Bukhsh Rasool said, 'Given the uncertainty prevailing in Pakistan, anything is possible.'

Besides, revolutions could be quite unpredictable, said Taimur Rahman, a political science teacher at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, and also singer-activist.

'Who could have said a month ago that Egypt would be in the grip of mass protests in no time and that Mubarak would fall, or that the entire Arab world would be in the grip of a mass movement,' said Rahman.

But building a momentum for political change and sustaining it too, like the one seen at Tahrir Square, may be difficult in Pakistan, Rahman acknowledges. 'One of the major impediments to building a mass movement for political change in the country is the forces of religious extremism that are spreading terror around the country.'

In such circumstances, he says, it is very difficult to achieve the kind of mobilisation that one saw at Cairo’s city centre. 'People are scared of coming out in the streets for a protest,' he lamented.

But to 31-year old lawyer Yasser Hamdani, 'popular revolutions are brought about by participation of workers, peasants and other sections of society that are mobilised with a clear strategy and aims and objectives.'

Hamdani said the mass protest witnessed in Egypt was not a revolution.

'A revolution changes the dynamics of a society; a revolution can be economic when factors of production undergo a change; a revolution can be political when sea change is brought in the type of government,' Hamdani said. In Egypt, none of this has happened.

'The age of ideologically-driven revolution is over,' explained Raees. 'The revolutions that we have witnessed in recent decades and years are about a regime change.'

But that kind of revolution is not possible in Pakistan because it has an open constitutional path on the basis of electoral contest, Raees said.

Rahman also said that while revolutions take off spontaneously, as in Egypt, often a political party is able to gain control and lead it.

'Mubarak was an individual. His departure has made it possible for Egypt's ruling elite to remain in power. A better alternative would have been immediate presidential and parliamentary elections under the previous constitution with impartial monitors,' Hamdani added.

Hamdani likens Egypt's uprising to the kind of regime change Pakistan went through when dictator General Ayub Khan transferred power to Yahya Khan in 1969. He said, 'Pakistan is some 40 years ahead in its democratic development despite interruptions.'

In any case, Hamdani believes mass protests of the same kind in Pakistan will amount to pressurising a legitimate and democratically elected government, which should be 'unacceptable to every progressive and democratic-minded person in Pakistan.'

To him, a dysfunctional democracy has a better chance of becoming a functional democracy than what he called 'mobcracy'.

'Given enough election cycles, Pakistan’s democracy will ultimately resolve all outstanding questions. A revolution of the Egyptian kind will only cripple it,' Hamdani said.

But if a revolution does take place, what hue will it take? 'Ours will look more like an Islamic-left kind,' predicts Siddiqa. Poverty, corruption and bad governance are issues that can motivate a mass uprising, agrees Raees, but as in the past, these revolts would be mediated. 'Either they will result in fresh elections or in military takeover,' he said.

'If religious extremists hijack the Egyptian movement it will be very negative, but that is quite unlikely. In all probability this movement will head in a progressive direction,' said Rahman.

But Hamdani has serious doubts. According to him Egypt is now under 'naked military rule.'

'In my view, it has already taken a step backwards. The military will formulate a constitution of its liking which is not the way constitutions are formed,' Hamdani said.

© Inter Press Service (2011) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service