Experts Urge Rapid Adaptation as India Braces for ‘Stronger’ Cyclones, Quakes
CHENNAI, India, January 12 (IPS) - Despite early warnings reportedly reaching communities before the cyclones (Ditwah and Senyar) struck coastal regions in Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia late in November 2025, over 1,500 people lost their lives and hundreds went missing even as millions were impacted by these disasters, which caused massive destruction. Scientists say that these disasters reflect a changing climate system, which is making cyclones more hazardous than what we considered “typical” in the past.
Meanwhile, the Himalayan communities, already under threat from climate-driven floods and slope failures, will now also have to reckon with major seismic risk, with India recently radically upgrading the seismic zonation map wherein the entire Himalayan arc has been placed in the highest seismic-risk (or Zone VI). Scientists say that the upgrade calls for re-evaluation of infrastructure in the Himalayas, where the overlay of climate stress and the upgraded tectonic hazard assessment deepen the vulnerability of around 52 million people.
‘A Trend of Intensifying Storms’
Highlighting that the latest cyclones in South and Southeast Asia reflect a changing climate system, Professor Benjamin Horton, Dean of the School of Energy and Environment (SEE) at City University of Hong Kong, told IPS, “While Senyar and Ditwah are still tropical cyclones in a meteorological sense, what makes them different is their intensity, rainfall patterns, and the regions they are impacting.”
Historically, he said, cyclones in this region were less frequent and less severe.
“Today, warmer ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric circulation are fueling storms that are stronger, wetter, and sometimes slower moving, which is leading to prolonged flooding and greater destruction,” Horton explained and added that climate change is amplifying the characteristics of these storms, making them more hazardous than what was considered “typical” in the past. “And it is only going to get worse,” he warned.
Horton emphasized that a multi-layered approach is needed to deal with these climate-driven disasters in the future. This includes providing accurate forecasting and rapid communication to communities at risk; designing buildings, roads, and critical facilities to withstand extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding; avoiding high-risk zones for development, besides restoring natural buffers like mangroves and wetlands; training local populations on evacuation plans and emergency responses; integrating climate risk into government planning; and allocating resources for adaptation, not just recovery.
“Ultimately, reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally is essential to slow the trend of intensifying storms. But locally, proactive adaptation and preparedness will save lives and reduce economic losses,” Horton emphasized.
Indian climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll wrote in an article that the latest cyclones (Ditwah and Senyar) are a new class of disasters characterized not by winds that are intense in ferocity, but by the amount of rain they contain.
According to Koll, neither Senyar nor Ditwah ranked among the strongest storms of recent decades. Their wind speeds (60-80 km/hr), he noted, did not approach the ferocity of super cyclones (often reaching 200-250 km/hr), but they carried extraordinary amounts of water.
Koll believes that Senyar and Ditwah revealed something uncomfortable yet undeniable for which adaptation strategies need to be in place as early as possible. According to him, unless homes, roads, schools, farms and local institutions adapt at the same pace as the forms of such disasters are changing, warnings will remain as weather reports only.
Ligin Joseph, who researches physical oceanography at the University of Southampton, said that it is still too early to say definitively whether these cyclones were fundamentally different from past events.
“A thorough scientific assessment, including peer-reviewed analyses, will be required to establish whether climate change played a significant role. That said, Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah did have some unusual characteristics. For instance, Senyar formed very close to the equator, where the Coriolis force (the spin needed for cyclones to develop) is weak. While equatorial cyclone formation is rare, it is not unprecedented, but it does make Senyar noteworthy,” Joseph told IPS.
Another peculiarity, he said, is that both cyclones had relatively low wind speeds, yet the impacts were severe, primarily due to extreme rainfall and flooding rather than wind damage. Both systems also formed close to the coast and moved slowly, which can enhance rainfall accumulation and worsen flooding, Joseph added.
According to Joseph, from a climate change perspective, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can increase the rainfall associated with cyclones.
“So, climate change may have contributed to the intensity of the rainfall, but at this stage, it is too early to quantify its exact influence,” he said, adding, “While climate change is projected to increase the intensity of tropical cyclones globally, the frequency does not necessarily increase. What we are more certain about is that cyclones are becoming wetter, which raises the risk of flooding.”
Overlay of Climate Stress, Highest Seismic Risk in Himalayan Arc
The Himalayan communities, already threatened by climate-driven floods and slope failures, now face the highest seismic risk. Recently, India radically upgraded the seismic zonation map, placing the entire Himalayan arc in Zone VI, the highest seismic risk.
A surge in disasters has been witnessed in recent months and years in the Himalayas, including a 2025 debris flow in
that was traced to moraines and thawing permafrost rather than a cloudburst.
In 2022, disasters struck on 63 percent of the days in the entire year in the Indian Himalayan region, with 1,058 deaths, while the numbers rose to 68 percent in 2023 and 70 percent in 2024, killing 837 and 870 people respectively in these years, according to Down to Earth, a weekly magazine published by the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.
Reacting to the radical upgrade of India’s seismic zonation, which has placed 61 percent of the country’s landmass in the moderate- to high-risk category and the entire Himalayan arc in the highest-risk category, or Zone VI, scientists said that the upgrade calls for a re-evaluation of infrastructure in high-risk zones, especially in the Himalayas, where the overlay of climate stress and the upgraded tectonic hazard assessment deepen the vulnerability of around 52 million people living in Himalayan states.
The revised seismic zonation has been done by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), India’s National Standard Body, which develops seismic zoning maps of India and operates through various committees to help set up standards. BIS classifies regions based on their earthquake risk, a vital aspect for planning and construction practices. In BIS’s latest revision of earthquake risk, a key change from previous versions is the introduction of a revised earthquake zone map.
Seismic Hazard Higher than Previously Projected
“The change in the Himalaya is significant,” Vineet Gahalaut, the Director of Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun, told IPS, adding, “The important thing in this upgrade is the realization that the seismic hazard in the Himalaya is actually higher than previously projected in the earlier map.” He said that the Himalayan region has now been put in seismic zone VI whereas earlier it was in zones IV and V.
“These zones are directly related to the strengthening measures in the construction of large structures. Thus, all the critical structures in the Himalaya will require much more strengthening [as per the new map],” Gahalaut said.
Navin Juyal, a senior geologist who was formerly with the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, said, “Under the changing climate, coupled with the seismic threat, assessment of vulnerable zones is of the utmost importance because of the fact that ‘disaster happens when hazard meets vulnerability.'”
Juyal told IPS that this is also equally important for making the proactive disaster-resilient policies in the Himalayan region.
The updated seismic map, based on active fault studies and continuous GPS measurements, reveals that earlier zonation maps were not aligned with the actual seismic risk. This makes the upgrade very significant, according to Jayangonda Perumal, Head of the Structure and Tectonic Group at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology.
It highlights highly vulnerable zones V and VI, covering areas between the foothills of the Higher Himalaya and along the Himalayan foothills, including cities like Chandigarh, Delhi, and Upper Assam, Perumal said.
“While the re-evaluation of environmental clearances for existing projects is a government decision, adopting seismic-resilient building codes, especially for large infrastructures, is crucial. A nodal agency comprising experts from all relevant institutions should be identified to oversee this,” Perumal told IPS.
Om Prakash Mishra, the Director of the National Centre of Seismology (NCS), said that there are some major multipurpose power projects and other important infrastructure in the Himalayan region that need to be re-evaluated in light of this risk assessment upgrade.
“Their design is based on geological and seismological assessments. Earlier, the seismic information was limited, mainly focusing on the immediate subsurface. Now, with this new map and the shift to Zone VI, the expected shaking values have increased. That means structures have to be re-evaluated for resilience,” Mishra said.
A Wake-Up Call
According to C. P. Rajendran, an Indian Geologist from the National Institute of Advanced Studies, the new seismic zonation map serves as a crucial warning.
“Special care is needed to avoid the construction of critical facilities (e.g., hospitals, fire stations, power plants) on the most vulnerable land and also to regulate development on steep, unstable slopes that are prone to landslides during quakes in the Himalayas,” Rajendran told IPS.
Major cities outside the Himalayas, including Delhi, Kolkata, and Guwahati, fall into high-risk zones, Rajendran said. “Considering the updated Seismic Zonation Map, the National Building Code of India must be rigorously updated and enforced, especially for high-rise structures, hospitals, schools, and critical infrastructure. This includes design standards for lateral loads (earthquake forces) and the use of modern engineering techniques like base isolation,” he said.
According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of India, the increase in earthquake risk is due to a spurt in developmental activities driven by urbanization, economic development and the globalization of India’s economy.
“The increase in use of high-technology equipment and tools in manufacturing and service industries has also made them susceptible to disruption due to relatively moderate ground shaking. As a result, loss of human life is not the only determinant of earthquake risk anymore,” NDMA notes on its official website and adds, “Severe economic losses leading to the collapse of the local or regional economy after an earthquake may have long-term adverse consequences for the entire country. This effect would be further magnified if an earthquake affects a megacity, such as Delhi or Mumbai.”
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