• by Lova Rabary-Rakotondravony (antananarivo)
• Tuesday, April 27, 2010
• Inter Press Service

The deadline the Malagasy Armed Forces gave transitional authorities to find a solution to the political crisis that has paralysed Madagascar for over a year will expire at the end of April.

Earlier in the month, army chief of staff General Andre Ndriarijaona announced that the military authorities had asked the leaders of the transition 'to publish a clear and verifiable roadmap'. They also called on opposition politicians to collaborate with authorities during this time frame.

General Ndriarijaona explained the action by the military and police as one in sympathy with 'the suffering of the people'.

'(This is why) we have established a framework for finding a solution for rescuing the country from this deep crisis,' he says.

The military did not say what would happen should the deadline expire without an agreement, but some observers fear that the army will seize power.

A meeting in South Africa between the president of the Transitional Authority (HAT, after its French acronym) Andry Rajoelina and the man he deposed, Marc Ravalomanana, was scheduled for Apr. 25, but then postponed.

Rajoelina and Ravalomanana are now expected to meet on Apr. 28, with South African president Jacob Zuma and former presidents Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy in Pretoria.

In an Apr. 14 statement, Rajoelina said that 'the resolutions adopted at the meeting in South Africa will be presented to the armed forces at the end of April.'

Though acknowledging the threat of a coup, the president of the HAT was confident that a military take-over is not imminent. 'The Malagasy military is very clear-headed... The country has not yet reached the point where the only avenue left is for armed forces to take power,' he says.

An indication of the prevailing uncertainty came four days later with news of the arrest of several people - reported variously as seven or 19 - in connection with an alleged plot to attack the prime minister.

Emeline Rasoarimanana, a retired teacher, is delighted by the military's public stand. 'It is time that the armed forces take on their responsibility,' she told IPS. 'With this stalemate, military government or directorate is the only solution.'

In an interview with IPS, retired general Ratrimoarivony Guy, now at the country's Centre for Diplomatic and Strategic Studies, believes, that for now, the military has no intention of taking power. He sees the ultimatum as a form of pressure on the government.

'This pressure will encourage all the political movements to play along,' said Lydie Boka, an analyst at StrategieCo, a firm specialising in financial, economic and political analysis and forecasting in emerging and developing countries. Even as she wondered how the military can compel political movements to work with the HAT, Boka is certain that the army has the means to force the HAT to work with other parties.

For Fetison Andrianirina, head of Ravalomanana's political movement, it's precisely the the military's job to work towards relaunching dialogue. 'Soldiers must bring the four political movements to the negotiating table in order to get them to discuss how to work together,' he told IPS.

According to Andrianirina, it's normal that the armed forces take on their responsibility since 'having contributed to the emergence of this power, they have a debt to the people.' He noted that it was the army's overthrowing of the prior government that allowed for Rajoelina to come into power in March 2009.

It is also because of its contribution to the establishment of the transitional regime that General Noël Rakotonandrasana, former Minister of the Armed Forces, called on military, civilian and religious leaders to join him in a Conseil supérieur mixte de médiation et éthique (Joint Mediation and Ethics High Council).

General Rakotonandrasana, whose men had helped Rajoelina take power, was fired on Apr. 7 for 'organizing meetings without informing the Prime Minister or the Commander in Chief of the Army,' said the president of the HAT.

But he did not agree to hand over the position to his successor until Apr. 14. 'The transition has deviated from its path, we must steer it back,' he told reporters after handing over the position, insisting that he would 'help Madagascar come out of the crisis.'

© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service

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