One kilogramme of opium cost $750 last year, up from $75 just three years ago, compensating sellers for the loss in overall production and poppy fields, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

“Heroin and opium seizures are down about 50 per cent in weight since 2021,” the UN agency reported, highlighting that the post-ban decrease in production in Afghanistan has led to a decline in opiate trafficking.

Opium is the naturally occurring primary active ingredient used in the production of heroin, a more potent, synthetic drug. The three main global sources of illegal opium are Afghanistan, Colombia and Myanmar.

Because of the higher prices, “massive profits are still being made, primarily benefiting high-level traders and exporters in organised crime groups,” UNODC noted.

Dwindling stockpiles

The UN agency estimates that opiate stocks at the end of 2022 totalled 13,200 tonnes, enough to potentially meet demand for Afghan opiates until 2027.

“The surge in opium prices and the substantial stockpiles mean that drug trafficking in Afghanistan remains a highly profitable illicit trade,” said UNODC executive director Ghada Waly.

“The profits are being channeled to transnational organised crime groups, destabilising Afghanistan, the region and beyond. We need a coordinated counter-narcotics strategy that targets trafficking networks while at the same time investing in viable economic livelihoods for farmers to provide long-term stability for Afghanistan and its people.”

Afghanistan’s stockpiles before the drop in opium cultivation are believed to have been worth between $4.6 billion and $5.9 billion, or roughly 23 to 29 per cent of the country’s economy in 2023. This may have helped some ordinary Afghans to withstand the crippling economic problems the country has faced since the return of the de facto authorities, UNODC said.

Farmers' struggle

Nevertheless, with 60 per cent of stockpiles likely in the hands of large traders and exporters and only 30 per cent of farmers holding “small to modest” reserves in 2022, “most farmers who previously cultivated opium are likely experiencing severe financial hardship,” the UN agency warned.

Sustainable economic alternatives are urgently needed to discourage them from returning to poppy cultivation, particularly given today’s high opium prices.

The UN agency also warned that the continued shortage of opium may motivate buyers and sellers to look to alternative drugs that are potentially even more harmful than heroin, such as fentanyl or other synthetic opioids.