• by Johanna Son (bangkok)
• Thursday, April 08, 2010
• Inter Press Service

'I wish the red-shirt protesters will get tired soon and go home,' Nicha, a 28- year-old receptionist, said soon after the Thai government declared a state of emergency as tens of thousands of protesters went into their fourth week of rallies here.

'But what do you expect, given that this government came to power in an unusual way?' asked Lek, an employee who says he agrees that the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva did not come to power through an election.

These two views are quite far apart, but both recognise that the protests by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) are not going to disappear overnight.

Tensions rose after the government declared a state of emergency Wednesday night, after some protesters forced their way into Parliament.

While Thais went about their normal business Thursday, there was a feeling that the situation had come to a head, although it was unclear what would happen next.

'Tensions are quite high now, especially with the state of emergency,' said Puangthong Pawapakan, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University who says it is time to look for a compromise. 'We need to keep an eye out (for what happens) today onwards.'

On Thursday night, arrest warrants were issued for seven UDD leaders, including for the Parliament intrusion. Abhisit went on television to assure citizens that the government was in control, and that it was sticking to non- violence in managing the crisis.

The lines in the political deadlock are clear nearly a month after the UDD protesters, called red shirts because of their protest colour, streamed into the Thai capital on Mar. 12 to demand that the Abhisit-led government dissolve Parliament and call for new elections.

They came to challenge a political system that they say has, twice since 2006, negated the result of votes that had put allies of their political patron, the fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in power.

After the 2006 coup ousted Thaksin, two pro-Thaksin prime ministers were ousted in non-electoral means, such as through protests backed by the middle class and the dissolution of their political parties.

The Abhisit government took office some 16 months ago, its coalition cobbled together in a deal shaped by the military that led to a new vote in Parliament to put in place a new government.

Reaching more than 100,000 by some accounts, the red shirts first occupied a bridge. Later, they held mobile rallies in the city and threw litres of blood at Government House.

Hopes rose at end-March when the government and UDD leaders held talks on national television. The UDD demanded the dissolution of Parliament in 15 days and Abhisit floated the idea of nine months, but no agreement was reached.

The government and UDD critics say the red shirts, many of whom come from Thailand’s north and north-east where Thaksin remains popular despite his conviction for corruption, were being paid by the ex-prime minister who now lives in exile or want him back in power.

On Apr. 3, tens of thousands of red shirts camped out at commercial Rajprasong district in 40-degree Celsius heat. They remain there despite the government’s warnings that they were breaking the law.

Many are hoping for a way out of the gridlock. In recent days, different groups have said that it is time to look beyond the emotions -- and the insults -- to explore pragmatic solutions to the crisis.

This week, a group of professors from the respected Chulalongkorn, Thammasat and Mahidol universities proposed the dissolution of Parliament in three months, to pave the way for fresh polls that would give the next government an undisputed mandate.

Three months is enough time for the Abhisit government to sort out urgent policies and for political parties to prepare concrete platforms, the professors said. Puangthong said political groups - red shirts, the government and their yellow-shirt supporters — should sign a 'social contract that they will accept the election results no matter who wins.'

The Abhisit government has said a new election would not solve the political divisions in Thailand, but the UDD says it fears a vote because pro- Thaksin voters have the numbers to win it.

But these groups should battle it out in the election campaign and sell their platforms to voters instead, and if Abhisit or the Democrat Party he is part of 'cannot win a majority, he cannot have a government', Puangthong says.

With society so divided, she says, it can be hard to make the point to look deeper into the protests, because Thaksin’s corruption has alienated many Thais and academics. 'I don’t understand how these people can do all of this for that thief (Thaksin),' said Apichai, a Bangkok resident. 'Election? But the reds will win, and why should only the people in Isaan (north-east) choose who leads Thailand?' asked Som, a teacher.

But if one looks at the way leadership changes have been made in recent years, the red shirts do have 'a cause that is legitimate', Puangthong explained. 'The call for dissolution is not to overthrow the government,' she added, but 'these people want to do this change (election) within the political system'.

She says that since the government has floated the idea of a dissolution by end-2010, it would be prudent to reach a compromise soonest. Standing ground for just a few more months would be 'not worth' the risk of violence and a longer crisis, she says.

Even if the red shirts do not get their demand, 'if this vicious cycle of protests continues, the current political system cannot endure', Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Thai professor who is now at Stanford University in the United States, wrote in a commentary.

Whatever one’s views, the past month has certainly been an instructive, if difficult, political lesson for many in this South-east Asian country.

Thep, a 28-year-old doctoral student, says the 'chronic state of political turmoil' is an opportunity. 'I think Thailand is in a critical transition. . . to a society where people are aware of their role in politics. It might be rough and confusing, but if our country can somehow get through this crisis, we will definitely have a strong people-led democracy.'

© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service