Global Issues
IRAQ: Iran, Saudi Arabia's Roles Play Out in Post-poll Crisis
While Iraq’s election was largely a domestic affair, efforts there to form a new government in the weeks after the March poll have been bogged down by a flurry of contradictory pulls and pressures by several international actors.
Though the United States has refrained from playing a direct role thus far, it is bound to have some bearing on the nature of the new administration. But Iran and Saudi Arabia have been the key players influencing the make-up of the new government, with Syria and Turkey also pitching in.
‘‘What we are witnessing in Iraq is two opposing agendas — led by Iran and Saudi Arabia — battling for supremacy,’’ according to Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a professor of political science at the United Arab Emirates University.
‘‘In this radical clash, Iran is seeking a sectarian, weak and divided Iraq; while Saudi Arabia is attempting to realise the desire of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other Arab countries for a secular, strong and united Iraq,’’ Abdulla said.
Following the announcement of poll results last Friday, Iran is busy working to ensure a Shiite-dominated and Tehran-friendly government, while Saudi Arabia is seeking the return to the helm of ‘Sunni- and Arab-friendly’ former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who is also a Shiite.
The Mar. 7 election yielded ‘secular’ Allawi’s Iraqi Nationalist Movement 91 seats, thus pushing the Iran-preferred State of Law party of Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki to second spot with 89 seats.
But the seats that Allawi’s group won was too few to form a government itself, leading to a difficult process of forming coalitions based on ideological, ethnic, sectarian or pragmatic considerations.
At one point in late March, Allawi accused Iran of trying to block him from becoming prime minister.
Abdulla believes that ‘‘given the foothold that Iran has had in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Tehran obviously has more cards at its disposal than Saudi Arabia.’’ Suggesting that the United States possessed more influence than Saudi Arabia to limit Iran’s role in Iraq, he told IPS, ‘‘In fact, the Arab Gulf countries are counting on the Americans to do the job for them.’’
Apart from the age-old U.S.-Iran differences and the nuclear row playing out in Iraq, the ideological battle between the GCC countries and Iran is sectarian. While the GCC — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — is predominantly Sunni, Iran and Iraq are mostly Shiite.
Until Saddam Hussein — a Sunni — was ousted in 2003, Iraq served as a counterbalance against Iran. Since then, however, Iran has extended its influence not only in Iraq, but also in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and even Yemen, much to the discomfort of the GCC countries and other members of the Arab world.
With Maliki banning hundreds of candidates, many of them Sunnis, from contesting the election because of their alleged ties to Saddam’s regime, the GCC countries now believe that with Allawi as prime minister, Iran’s regional and Shiite influence could be checked more effectively.
Irrespective of what the final outcome of this leadership crisis is, Abdulla says that the Iraq election result was a pleasant surprise to the Arab world. ‘‘The fractured mandate exposed the limits of Iran’s influence in Iraqi affairs. The electorate clearly demonstrated its preference for less of Iranian influence in Iraq’s society and politics,’’ he said.
The news of the surprisingly strong Sunni performance in Iraq election was received with much joy in the Arab world, with the influential Saudi newspaper Asharq Al Awsat labelling it ‘The Awakening of Moderation in Iraq’.
During the election campaign, Allawi’s visits to Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, were branded as ‘Arabism’ by Maliki’s party and Arab countries were accused of interfering in Iraqi internal politics.
‘‘From the GCC and Arab perspective, it is not about Maliki or Allawi, it is more about a moderate leader, and a stable, secular and secure Iraq. The GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, would have remained neutral had Maliki been moderate,’’ Abdulla said.
Going by precedent, Allawi should be asked to form a government first. But Maliki has pointed to a court decision that, he claims, allows him to form a ‘‘national partnership’’ first and then stake the claim to form a coalition government.
‘‘Given the Shiite factor in Iran-Iraq relations, Tehran is bound to have a major role in Baghdad politics,' said Kuwaiti political analyst Ali Jaber Al Sabah. 'But the fact that there is no unanimity between the two over who or which is the most authoritative voice in Shiite Islam is heartening.’’
Debate continues over whether Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani in Iraq’s Najaf or Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic in Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or Qom bear more influence on Shiites. While the former has largely stayed out of politics, Khamenei has always remained very active.
Sistani has repeatedly refused to endorse any electoral coalition this time, after working towards a unified Shiite coalition in Iraq’s first national elections in 2005. This has given Sunnis a competitive chance to be active political players.
‘‘Till Sistani holds this line, Iraq’s democracy is safe and so are Arab interests to some extent. If he were to change his mind, it will be apocalyptic for both Iraq and the region,’’ Al Sabah added, indicating that Iran could go unchecked.
© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service