Global Issues
ECONOMY-PAKISTAN: As Floods Recede, Hope Emerges in Next Crop
'The Indus (River) showed us who this country belongs to — and that is, to the Indus,' declares economist Haris Gazdar, referring to the recent deluge that wrought untold devastation to Pakistan. 'We must respect rivers and not treat them with the contempt we show towards everything else.'
For centuries, the mighty Indus River, which covers some 3,180 kilometres and cuts across the country into the Arabian Sea, has been Pakistan’s lifeline.
But in recent months, it also destroyed hectare upon hectare of rice paddy, cotton and wheat crops, and washed away livestock and fodder, seeds, fertilisers and farm implements, on top of affecting nearly 20 million people in this South Asian country.
About two-thirds in this country of more than 184 million people work in the agriculture sector and 70 percent of the flood-affected people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, according to the United Nations.
A total of 1.61 million hectares of farmland with standing crops has been damaged by the floods, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association says the estimated loss of cotton crop alone is over 75 billion Pakistani rupees (875.5 million U.S. dollars).
Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani told a Cabinet meeting earlier in September said the country had suffered between 4 to 6 billion dollars worth of damage to infrastructure, livestock and crops.
Pakistan’s economy grew by 4.1 percent in 2009, but will miss this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target of 4.5 percent, he said. The GDP growth figure is likely to be reduced to 2.5 percent for the fiscal year 2010-11.
But amid this gloom, doom and devastation, Amir Muhammed, founder and former chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), sees a silver lining. 'The abundant soil moisture and full dams should be made full use of for the next crop.'
He also says it will be possible to plant on time for the winter crop. Wheat planting for the winter crop is in October-November for Sindh, and November-December for Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
What started as heavier than usual monsoon downpour in the last few days of July, inundated one-fifth of Pakistan within a month.
As roads, bridges, irrigation systems and grid stations lie totally destroyed or badly damaged — and will take a long time and sizeable investment to be reconstructed — Muhammed says the country should put maximum effort into improving agricultural productivity because it has a 'considerable potential and a knowledgeable farming community.'
For instance, although all of Shahzad Hussaini’s 91 hectares of agricultural land in Sindh province’s Thatta district has been inundated and he has lost 22 cattle and 49 goats, he believes the floods have been a godsend. Thatta in fact is among the worst affected of all of the 23 districts in Sindh. But those like the 32-year-old Hussaini, being of the Indus delta, are still looking ahead because they know full well that the water brought by the floods also allow the land to recover.
'The sea ingression will stall, mangroves will flourish as will fish and shrimps,' he says. But the best thing, he continues, is that the salty groundwater will become sweet again. It will remain so for the next eight years or so, he predicts.
'Our next crop will give us 20 percent more yield because of the silt deposited during the floods and the moisture in the soil,' explains Hussaini, who is also president of the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture.
As the water slowly begins to recede and a more accurate picture of the damage emerges, the planning and preparation for rehabilitation and reconstruction will begin. Government officials have promised livelihood support to displaced people and those rebuilding their homes.
For instance, Gazdar says, it would be an opportune time to use the Benazir Income Support Programme, a 450 million dollar subsidy scheme, for those affected by the floods. 'While in some areas, the next crop will provide labour opportunities, in others, not for another eight to 12 months, therefore, the government will have to step in,' he added.
In an article in the English-language daily ‘Dawn’, Ishrat Hussain, former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, said that cash grants, microfinance loans, the supply of seeds, fertilisers, bullocks, housing material can come from resources from not just the Benazir programme but funds at the parliamentarians’ disposal and the Poverty Alleviation Fund, among others.
Even though devastation remains all around, Muhammed says that 'we should be able to produce a bumper crop' if key inputs like quality seeds, affordable fertiliser and diesel for farm machinery are made available, on time, through agricultural credit to farmers.
Putting all efforts into the next crop would give a significant boost to the economy since 'agriculture is our main hope in the short to medium term', he explains.
In addition, he says that since most of the fodder has either been washed away or damaged, it is extremely important that they be rushed to the affected areas to save surviving livestock.
The livestock and dairy ministry estimates that the flood disaster has caused the loss of 1.2 million large animals and six million poultry across the country.
'Unfortunately livestock losses cannot be replaced easily,' Muhammed says, but adds that young animals of better breeds will have to be given to farmers on concessional terms to rejuvenate the livestock population.
© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service