• by Jim Lobe* (washington)
• Wednesday, September 15, 2010
• Inter Press Service

Less than four months before a scheduled referendum on independence for southern Sudan, the administration of President Barack Obama is intensifying pressure on both Khartoum and the south's leadership to establish the necessary pre-conditions for the vote and any transition that follows it.

Obama himself will attend a key meeting on Sudan to be hosted by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at U.N. headquarters Sep. 24 to highlight the importance of resolving all outstanding disputes before the vote, Obama's special envoy on Sudan, ret. Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, told reporters at a special briefing here Wednesday.

Gration, who just returned from his 20th trip to Sudan since his appointment early last year, also warned the next weeks represent a 'make-or-break period' for the country.

'We must ensure that the parties find agreements' on the issues that remain to be settled before the referendum, which is scheduled to take place in January, he said.

They include, among other things, the final demarcation of the border between the north and the south and the terms for sharing oil reserves, most of which lie in the south, and future oil revenues. In addition, the voter registration process — a daunting challenge in a vast region that lacks basic infrastructure - has not yet begun.

The stakes are considered very high, indeed. If the referendum, which most analysts believe will result in a strong vote for secession, fails to take place or if the results are rejected by Khartoum, the civil war that was halted by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between Khartoum and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) is considered highly likely to resume.

Some two million people, the vast majority of them southerners, are believed to have died as a result of that conflict, which began in 1983 and ended with the signing of the CPA. The CPA, considered one of the few major foreign policy achievements of President George W. Bush, was mediated by the U.S., Britain, and Norway with the help of Sudan's neighbours and the African Union (AU).

In addition to sending Obama to the U.N. — a move that U.S. officials hope will draw other heads of state who will be attending the annual launch of the U.N. General Assembly to the meeting — Washington has taken a number of other steps to ensure that the referendum takes place.

Last month, it appointed Bush's former assistant secretary of state for Africa, veteran diplomat Princeton Lyman, to lead a U.S. Negotiation Support Unit in Sudan dedicated to resolving all pending disputes over the coming weeks.

Lyman's appointment was reportedly backed by forces within the administration that have expressed growing unhappiness with Gration, who has been accused, particularly by human rights and activist groups, of acting in too conciliatory a manner toward the government of President Omar al-Bashir.

Bashir is currently under indictment for war crimes and genocide by the International Criminal Court in connection with the government's counterinsurgency campaign in the western region of Darfur.

While Lyman is expected to spend much of his time shuttling between Khartoum and Juba, the administration has also ramped up its representation in the southern capital where it has appointed another veteran diplomat, Amb. Barrie Walkley, to lead its efforts there.

It has also deployed top officials to convey the seriousness of Washington's concern.

Just before Gration and Lyman arrived in Sudan late last week, for example, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a major foreign policy address Sep. 8 to warn that the situation there was a 'ticking time bomb of enormous consequence' and suggest that a secession vote was 'inevitable'.

'The real problem is what happens when the inevitable happens and the referendum is passed and the south declares independence,' she said. '…This is going to be a very hard decision for the north to accept.'

Indeed, Khartoum, whose national budget has become increasingly reliant on oil revenues, could lose an estimated 80 percent of its oil reserves and 50 percent of its oil revenues, not to mention 30-some percent of its national territory, if the south secedes.

'And so we've got to figure out some ways to make it worth their while to peacefully accept an independent south, and for the south to recognise that unless they want more years of warfare and no chance to build their own new state, they've got to make some accommodations with the north as well,' she said.

She followed her words with phone calls that evening to Sudan's two vice-presidents, Ali Othman Mohammed Taha, a long-time leader of the ruling National Congress Party; and Salva Kir Mayardit, the leader of the SPLA. According to Gration, Obama's national security advisor, ret. Gen. James Jones talked with the two Tuesday this week.

Late Tuesday, the State Department also released a 'fact sheet' detailing its recent diplomatic efforts and, for the first time, publicly laying out a road map for the steps Khartoum is expected to take to fully normalise long- strained relations with Washington.

In addition to offering an immediate easing of licensing restrictions that will make it possible to aid local food production in Sudan, Washington will 'take steps to allow additional trade and investment' in Sudan's non-oil sectors if a 'credible, peaceful' referendum takes place on time, it said.

If, in addition, there is agreement on key principles for 'post-referenda arrangements, the United States will support an exchange of ambassadors,' according to the fact sheet, which was based on Gration's exchanges in Khartoum.

If the CPA is fulfilled and Khartoum resolves its conflicts with rebel groups in Darfur — a negotiation process currently being led by Qatar — the administration work with the legislative branch to lift all remaining bilateral and multilateral economic and aid sanctions imposed by Congress against Sudan.

On Darfur, which has been largely overshadowed by the growing concern over a breakdown in the CPA, any accord must include a 'sustained improvement in security, humanitarian access (to those who have been displaced by the seven-year- old conflict), and services that improve living conditions on the ground, (and) full cooperation with UNAMID,' the U.N. peacekeeping force deployed in Darfur, according to the sheet.

The sheet also said Gration had made clear in his talks that 'there are a range of consequences that will be deployed, if the situation in Sudan deteriorates or fails to make progress, including additional sanctions.'

Darfur-related activist groups that have been critical of Gration praised the administration Wednesday.

'We are encouraged that the plan not only spells out incentives for steps toward peace, security and accountability, but also makes clear a range of consequences will be deployed for failure to make progress,' said Mark Lotwis, the acting president of the Save Darfur Coalition, which represents more than 100 humanitarian, faith-based and human rights groups.

'The intensified Sudan strategy, along with President Obama's commitment to attend next week's U.N. summit on Sudan, indicates the kind of leadership that millions of concerned Americans have been asking President Obama to assert,' he said, adding for all the attention focused on the North-South situation, 'Darfur should remain no less of a priority.'

*Jim Lobe's blog on U.S. foreign policy can be read at http://www.lobelog.com.

© Inter Press Service (2010) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service

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